Optimistic Outlook for Raw Material Imports? A Storm Is Brewing [SMM Analysis]

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Copper concentrate import data for May 2025 generally fell short of market expectations, especially import figures which dropped significantly from April's historical high. According to released data, China imported approximately 2.4 million tons of copper concentrate in May, a 18.09% month-on-month decrease and 5.8% year-on-year increase. This is slightly lower than the January-May 2025 monthly average import volume of 2.485 million tons. In May, China imported 69,000 tons of anode copper, down 6.48% month-on-month and 30.56% year-on-year, but higher than the January-May monthly average of 63,000 tons. Imported scrap copper stood at 18,500 tons in May, a 9.55% month-on-month decrease and 6.63% year-on-year decline, slightly below the January-May monthly average of 19,200 tons.

The overall shortfall in imported raw material supply has put pressure on China's smelters, suggesting that the previously record-high imported raw material supply may have been a "flash in the pan". Additionally, port inventories of copper concentrate in China are not only at year-to-date lows but also show a continuing downward trend. The subsequent raw material supply outlook is not particularly optimistic. This is unfavorable for the mid-year negotiations on copper concentrate, essentially strengthening the seller's bargaining position. The bleak import data seems to "foreshadow" a mid-year negotiation outcome that will fall below expectations.

According to SMM, the second round of mid-year negotiations between Chinese smelters and Antofagasta began on Thursday and Friday this week. Three smelters participated on Thursday, and two on Friday. The negotiation result shows that Antofagasta still insists on an offer of -$15, while Chinese smelters have not explicitly accepted this price. The third round of negotiations will commence next week.

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